In the weeks leading up the 2012 Hottest 100, Brisbane statistician Nick Drewe published a list of what he statistically believed to be the positions for the 2012 Hottest 100. Using social media sites such as Facebook and Twitter, and taking advantage of the social connectivity Triple J offered with their Hottest 100 voting system, Drewe was able to see the votes that people had made in the Hottest 100 voting period.
The following year, Triple J made changes to the voting process and the ability to share votes via social media as a means to prevent Drewe from creating the Warmest 100 for a second time. Initially, this worked and Drewe did indeed decline to do another Warmest 100 prediction. However, following support from Australian-born economist David Quach, who suggested investigating other social media avenues as a means to predict the Hottest 100 again, the 2013 Warmest 100 was posted online. However, the tightened social media sharing meant that only 1,779 ballots (or 0.11% of votes) were counted, as opposed to 35,081 votes (2.7% of votes) from the year before.
The list was discovered to have been less accurate than the previous year's, with 2012 featuring 92 of the predicted songs making the list, with 8 being matched to their correct position. However, the 2013 list featured 85 of the predicted songs making the list, with only 4 being matched to their correct position. However, this has been attributed to utilising a smaller sample size of data than the previous year.
The greatest disparity between its prediction and final placing was FIDLAR's 'No Waves', which was predicted to reach #81, but actually charted 113 positions lower at #194
- Quick Links:
- Warmest 100 Prediction
- Hottest 100 Positions
Warmest 100 Predictions
This is the Warmest 100 list, as published online in the days leading up the 2013 Hottest 100 countdown. The actual positions that the tracks reached in the countdown are marked alongside, along with the difference between the predicted and actual outcomes of the songs.
15 tracks that were predicted to have made the countdown were absent from the final countdown, but were revealed to feature in the #101-200 list.
These tracks are marked in bold.
Warmest 100
# | Title | Artist | Hottest 100 # | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Riptide | Vance Joy | 1 | Match |
2 | Do I Wanna Know? | Arctic Monkeys | 4 | -2 |
3 | Drop The Game | Flume & Chet Faker | 5 | -2 |
4 | Why'd You Only Call Me When You're High? | Arctic Monkeys | 6 | -2 |
5 | Covered In Chrome | Violent Soho | 14 | -9 |
6 | Is This How You Feel? | The Preatures | 9 | -3 |
7 | Retrograde | James Blake | 13 | -6 |
8 | Royals | Lorde | 2 | +6 |
9 | Take Me | RÜFÜS | 21 | -12 |
10 | Strong | London Grammar | 10 | Match |
11 | Given The Chance | The Kite String Tangle | 19 | -8 |
12 | Resolution | Matt Corby | 8 | +4 |
13 | My Number | Foals | 29 | -16 |
14 | Black Skinhead | Kanye West | 20 | -6 |
15 | Get Lucky (feat. Pharrell Williams) | Daft Punk | 3 | +12 |
16 | Smiles Don't Lie | Thundamentals | 32 | -16 |
17 | Desert Night | RÜFÜS | 34 | -17 |
18 | Arabella | Arctic Monkeys | 18 | Match |
19 | Pizza Guy | Touch Sensitive | 38 | -19 |
20 | When A Fire Starts To Burn | Disclosure | 23 | -3 |
21 | Stand Still (feat. Micky Green) | Flight Facilities | 48 | -27 |
22 | The Wire | HAIM | 11 | +11 |
23 | Ways To Go | Grouplove | 33 | -10 |
24 | Young And Beautiful | Lana Del Rey | 7 | +17 |
25 | Gun | Chvrches | 37 | -12 |
26 | Recover | Chvrches | 28 | -2 |
27 | Team | Lorde | 15 | +12 |
28 | Ratchet | Bloc Party | 36 | -8 |
29 | Tennis Court | Lorde | 12 | +17 |
30 | Step | Vampire Weekend | 26 | +4 |
31 | Your Body Is A Weapon | The Wombats | 25 | +6 |
32 | Falling | HAIM | 27 | +5 |
33 | Scar | Cloud Control | 52 | -19 |
34 | Diane Young | Vampire Weekend | 31 | +3 |
35 | Born To Die | The Amity Affliction | 40 | -5 |
36 | Melt (feat. Kilo Kish) | Chet Faker | 65 | -29 |
37 | Without You (feat. Totally Enormous Extinct Dinosaurs) | Dillon Francis | 99 | -62 |
38 | 3005 | Childish Gambino | 43 | -5 |
39 | Reflektor | Arcade Fire | 16 | +23 |
40 | Listen To Soul, Listen To Blues | SAFIA | 76 | -36 |
41 | Fuckin' Problems (feat. Drake, 2 Chainz & Kendrick Lamar) | A$AP Rocky | 79 | -38 |
42 | The Breach | Dustin Tebbutt | 44 | -2 |
43 | Embrace | Goldroom | 62 | -19 |
44 | Australia Street | Sticky Fingers | 70 | -26 |
45 | Lose Yourself To Dance (feat. Pharrell Williams) | Daft Punk | 17 | +28 |
46 | White Lies | Max Frost | 42 | +4 |
47 | Sangria | Remi | 85 | -38 |
48 | Graceless | The National | 64 | -16 |
49 | Get Lucky | San Cisco | 39 | +10 |
50 | Youngbloods (feat. Ahren Stringer) | Illy | 77 | -27 |
51 | Luck Now | Big Scary | 96 | -45 |
52 | Always | Panama | 80 | -28 |
53 | You & Me (feat. Eliza Doolittle) (Flume Remix) | Disclosure | 63 | -10 |
54 | Hey Now | London Grammar | 35 | +19 |
55 | Global Concepts | Robert Delong | 45 | +10 |
56 | Ohio | Kingswood | 53 | +3 |
57 | Elevate | St. Lucia | 93 | -36 |
58 | Keep On Running | Andy Bull | 57 | +1 |
59 | I Spy | Mikhael Paskalev | 75 | -16 |
60 | Instant Crush (feat. Julian Casablancas) | Daft Punk | 58 | +2 |
61 | Afterlife | Arcade Fire | 54 | +7 |
62 | Free (feat. Emeli Sandé) | Rudimental | 47 | +15 |
63 | Fantasy | MS MR | 78 | -15 |
64 | Alive | Empire Of The Sun | 30 | +34 |
65 | Thank You (feat. Q-Tip, Lil Wayne & Kanye West) | Busta Rhymes | 73 | -8 |
66 | Bound 2 | Kanye West | 59 | +7 |
67 | Wasting My Young Years | London Grammar | 61 | +6 |
68 | Waiting All Night (feat. Ella Eyre) | Rudimental | 24 | +44 |
69 | White Noise (feat. AlunaGeorge) | Disclosure | 69 | Match |
70 | Red Light, Gren Light | Dune Rats | 133 | -63 |
71 | Summer Forgive Me | British India | 84 | -13 |
72 | Dip | Danny Brown | 113 | -41 |
73 | Dojo Rising | Cloud Control | 82 | -9 |
74 | If I Could Change Your Mind | HAIM | 56 | +18 |
75 | Ausmusic Month Medley | Illy | 66 | +9 |
76 | Harlequin Dream | Boy & Bear | 55 | +21 |
77 | Miracle Mile | Cold War Kids | 109 | -32 |
78 | What Doesn't Kill You | Jake Bugg | 101 | -23 |
79 | Blood On The Leaves | Kanye West | 114 | -35 |
80 | Doin' It Right (feat. Panda Bear) | Daft Punk | 49 | +31 |
81 | No Waves | FIDLAR | 194 | -113 |
82 | Help Me Lose My Mind (feat. London Grammar) | Disclosure | 110 | -28 |
83 | Tonight | RÜFÜS | 91 | -8 |
84 | Unbelievers | Vampire Weekend | 90 | -6 |
85 | Eat, Sleep, Rave, Repeat (feat. Beardyman) | Fatboy Slim & Riva Star | 51 | +34 |
86 | Youth | Daughter | 102 | -16 |
87 | Shadow Moses | Bring Me The Horizon | 92 | -5 |
88 | Dead Star Shine | Horrorshow | 98 | -10 |
89 | Lies | Chvrches | 60 | +29 |
90 | Sleepwalking | Bring Me The Horizon | 86 | +4 |
91 | Easy Easy | King Krule | 149 | -58 |
92 | Southern Sun | Boy & Bear | 41 | +51 |
93 | F For You | Disclosure | 145 | -52 |
94 | Mr Little Jeans | Oh Sailor | 105 | -11 |
95 | Leeward Side | Josh Pyke | 88 | +7 |
96 | Baby I Am Nobody Now | Andy Bull | 81 | +15 |
97 | Everything You Wanted | Clubfeet | 134 | -37 |
98 | Need U (100%) (feat. A*M*E) | Duke Dumont | 156 | -58 |
99 | Do Or Die (feat. Childish Gambino) | Flux Pavilion | 108 | -9 |
100 | Right Back At It Again | A Day To Remember | 116 | -16 |
Hottest 100 Positions
This is the official 2013 Hottest 100 list, as counted down on January 26th, 2014. The positions that the tracks were predicted to reach are marked alongside, along with the difference between the actual and predicted outcomes of the songs.
14 tracks that made the countdown were not predicted to have made the list. These tracks are marked in bold.
Hottest 100
# | Title | Artist | Warmest 100 # | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Riptide | Vance Joy | 1 | Match |
2 | Royals | Lorde | 8 | -6 |
3 | Get Lucky (feat. Pharrell Williams) | Daft Punk | 15 | -12 |
4 | Do I Wanna Know? | Arctic Monkeys | 2 | +2 |
5 | Drop The Game | Flume & Chet Faker | 3 | +2 |
6 | Why'd You Only Call Me When You're High? | Arctic Monkeys | 4 | +2 |
7 | Young And Beautiful | Lana Del Rey | 24 | -17 |
8 | Resolution | Matt Corby | 12 | -4 |
9 | Is This How You Feel? | The Preatures | 6 | +3 |
10 | Strong | London Grammar | 10 | Match |
11 | The Wire | HAIM | 22 | -11 |
12 | Tennis Court | Lorde | 29 | -17 |
13 | Retrograde | James Blake | 7 | +6 |
14 | Covered In Chrome | Violent Soho | 5 | 9 |
15 | Team | Lorde | 27 | -12 |
16 | Reflektor | Arcade Fire | 39 | -23 |
17 | Lose Yourself To Dance (feat. Pharrell Williams) | Daft Punk | 45 | -28 |
18 | Arabella | Arctic Monkeys | 18 | Match |
19 | Given The Chance | The Kite String Tangle | 11 | +8 |
20 | Black Skinhead | Kanye West | 14 | +6 |
21 | Take Me | RÜFÜS | 9 | +12 |
22 | Lanterns | Birds Of Tokyo | ||
23 | When A Fire Starts To Burn | Disclosure | 20 | +3 |
24 | Waiting All Night (feat. Ella Eyre) | Rudimental | 68 | -44 |
25 | Your Body Is A Weapon | The Wombats | 31 | -6 |
26 | Step | Vampire Weekend | 30 | -4 |
27 | Falling | HAIM | 32 | -5 |
28 | Recover | Chvrches | 26 | +2 |
29 | My Number | Foals | 13 | +16 |
30 | Alive | Empire Of The Sun | 64 | -34 |
31 | Diane Young | Vampire Weekend | 34 | -3 |
32 | Smiles Don't Lie | Thundamentals | 16 | +16 |
33 | Ways To Go | Grouplove | 23 | +10 |
34 | Desert Night | RÜFÜS | 17 | +17 |
35 | Hey Now | London Grammar | 54 | -19 |
36 | Ratchet | Bloc Party | 28 | +8 |
37 | Gun | Chvrches | 25 | +12 |
38 | Pizza Guy | Touch Sensitive | 19 | +19 |
39 | Get Lucky | San Cisco | 49 | -10 |
40 | Born To Die | The Amity Affliction | 35 | +5 |
41 | Southern Sun | Boy & Bear | 92 | -51 |
42 | White Lies | Max Frost | 46 | -4 |
43 | 3005 | Childish Gambino | 38 | 5 |
44 | The Breach | Dustin Tebbutt | 42 | +2 |
45 | Global Concepts | Robert Delong | 55 | -10 |
46 | If I Had A Tail | Queens Of The Stone Age | ||
47 | Free (feat. Emeli Sandé) | Rudimental | 62 | -15 |
48 | Stand Still (feat. Micky Green) | Flight Facilities | 21 | +27 |
49 | Doin' It Right (feat. Panda Bear) | Daft Punk | 80 | -31 |
50 | Love Me Again | John Newman | ||
51 | Eat, Sleep, Rave, Repeat (feat. Beardyman) | Fatboy Slim & Riva Star | 85 | -34 |
52 | Scar | Cloud Control | 33 | +19 |
53 | Ohio | Kingswood | 56 | -3 |
54 | Afterlife | Arcade Fire | 61 | -7 |
55 | Harlequin Dream | Boy & Bear | 76 | -21 |
56 | If I Could Change Your Mind | HAIM | 74 | -18 |
57 | Keep On Running | Andy Bull | 58 | -1 |
58 | Instant Crush (feat. Julian Casablancas) | Daft Punk | 60 | -2 |
59 | Bound 2 | Kanye West | 66 | -7 |
60 | Lies | Chvrches | 89 | -29 |
61 | Wasting My Young Years | London Grammar | 67 | -6 |
62 | Embrace | Goldroom | 43 | +19 |
63 | You & Me (feat. Eliza Doolittle) (Flume Remix) | Disclosure | 53 | +10 |
64 | Graceless | The National | 48 | +16 |
65 | Melt (feat. Kilo Kish) | Chet Faker | 36 | +29 |
66 | Ausmusic Month Medley | Illy | 75 | -9 |
67 | Act Your Age | Bliss N Eso | ||
68 | Sweet Nothing | Something For Kate | ||
69 | White Noise (feat. AlunaGeorge) | Disclosure | 69 | Match |
70 | Australia Street | Sticky Fingers | 44 | +26 |
71 | Changing Of The Seasons | Two Door Cinema Club | ||
72 | I Sat By The Ocean | Queens Of The Stone Age | ||
73 | Thank You (feat. Q-Tip, Lil Wayne & Kanye West) | Busta Rhymes | 65 | +8 |
74 | Jessica (feat. Ezra Koenig) | Major Lazer | ||
75 | I Spy | Mikhael Paskalev | 59 | +16 |
76 | Listen To Soul, Listen To Blues | SAFIA | 83 | -7 |
77 | Youngbloods (feat. Ahren Stringer) | Illy | 50 | +27 |
78 | Fantasy | MS MR | 63 | +15 |
79 | Fuckin' Problems (feat. Drake, 2 Chainz & Kendrick Lamar) | A$AP Rocky | 41 | +38 |
80 | Always | Panama | 52 | +28 |
81 | Baby I Am Nobody Now | Andy Bull | 96 | -15 |
82 | Dojo Rising | Cloud Control | 73 | +9 |
83 | The End | The Jezabels | ||
84 | Summer Forgive Me | British India | 71 | +13 |
85 | Sangria | Remi | 47 | +38 |
86 | Sleepwalking | Bring Me The Horizon | 90 | -4 |
87 | Only One | John Butler Trio | ||
88 | Leeward Side | Josh Pyke | 95 | -7 |
89 | Brighter Than Gold | The Cat Empire | ||
90 | Unbelievers | Vampire Weekend | 84 | +6 |
91 | Tonight | RÜFÜS | 83 | +8 |
92 | Shadow Moses | Bring Me The Horizon | 87 | +5 |
93 | Elevate | St. Lucia | 57 | +36 |
94 | House Of Dreams | Bliss N Eso | ||
95 | Play With Fire | Vance Joy | ||
96 | Luck Now | Big Scary | 51 | +45 |
97 | My God Is The Sun | Queens Of The Stone Age | ||
98 | Dead Star Shine | Horrorshow | 88 | +10 |
99 | Without You (feat. Totally Enormous Extinct Dinosaurs) | Dillon Francis | 37 | +62 |
100 | We Are | Karnivool |